Achieving net zero requires residual emissions to be balanced with long-lasting and low-risk CDR. Yet without clear and early demand signals, the market for durable removals is unlikely to scale at the pace required.
Corporate net-zero targets aim to translate Paris Agreement goals into company-level pathways. Even in the most ambitious and effective net-zero strategy, some emissions will remain by the target year.
Achieving net zero requires these residual emissions to be balanced with carbon dioxide removals (CDR) that are long-lasting and low risk.
Yet without clear and early demand signals, the market for durable removals is unlikely to scale at the pace required.
The missing link: Corporate targets for CDR
The CDR market remains nascent, with significant delivery and scalability risks: concentration risk from reliance on a small number of large buyers, high costs that constrain supply growth, uneven regulatory development, and limited obligations under voluntary standards that provide little incentive for corporate investment.
Stronger guidance on CDR targets for companies from standard-setting bodies is therefore essential. Effective targets should:
- Align with climate science, supporting the scale-up of CDR required to achieve net zero and signalling the need for immediate investment.
- Balance a portfolio of multi-duration technologies to reflect current market realities, enabling companies to take meaningful action now while supply and technologies continue to develop.
- Properly account for durability, recognising both expected storage duration and the risk of reversal.
Understanding durability
Durability is central to any discussion of carbon removal, but it is often misunderstood. It is not simply about duration - how long carbon is stored; it is also about risk - the likelihood that stored carbon could be released back into the atmosphere. In other words, durability reflects both duration and risk.
Keeping both dimensions in mind allows different removal approaches to be assessed on a consistent basis, rather than relying on simplified categories such as "nature-based" versus "engineered." While long-duration, low-risk removals will ultimately be needed to balance residual emissions, shorter-duration removals can still deliver important near-term climate benefits, including biodiversity and community co-benefits, depending on the approach used.
A credible CDR strategy should therefore include a diverse portfolio of investments, matching different levels of durability to different use cases. Risk-based metrics such as Carbon at Risk (CaR) - a standardised, probabilistic tools used to quantify the potential failure of carbon removal projects - offer a more consistent and rigorous basis for assessing durability, supporting more effective portfolio management and target-setting.
Taking action now: A phased approach to CDR
Rather than waiting for guidance from standard-setting bodies, companies can take meaningful steps now to support the scale-up of the market.
Gold Standard recommends a phased approach, starting with a financial allocation model that enables early investment while markets continue to develop:
- Estimate likely residual emissions using credible sectoral benchmarks, such as the International Energy Agency pathways.
- Apply a credible internal carbon price to these expected residual emissions to define an annual CDR budget.
- Allocate a minimum share (eg., 20%)* to long-term durable CDR, with the remainder supporting shorter-term removals, R&D, infrastructure, and enabling investments.
- Over time, the minimum share allocated to durable CDR should increase, helping to drive market scale-up.
This approach is designed to drive ambition whilst recognising current market constraints.
Acting now is critical. The future of net zero depends on actions taken today. Companies that delay risk finding that durable removals are unavailable at the scale, cost, or quality required to meet their net-zero commitments when they need them most.
*This number is simply given as illustrative, not instructional. Minimum amounts dedicated towards durable CDR should match the scale-up requirements required to meet capacity needs by 2050.
To learn more, join our webinar with Kaya Axelsson from OxfordNetZero and Dan Magrath on 12 May 2026, where we will explore credible carbon removal approaches in detail. Check details on the event card below.
